Start Em/Sit Em Fantasy Advice For Week 15

By: Brian McDonald (@sackedbybmac)

The Houston Texans will get to unwrap an early Christmas present this week with a gift matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Bill O’Brien won’t admit to looking at the Jaguars that way, but it’s OK for us to look forward to the fantasy results of facing a lesser team.

That doesn’t mean every skill position player is worth starting this week, but favorable matchups do await several players.

JACKSONVILLE, FL - NOVEMBER 13: Brock Osweiler #17 of the Houston Texans attempts a pass against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the game at EverBank Field on November 13, 2016 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

(Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Brock Osweiler:

You’ll have more than 99 problems if you start Brock Osweiler this week.

Verdict: Sit in all formats

JACKSONVILLE, FL - NOVEMBER 13: Lamar Miller #26 of the Houston Texans runs for yardage against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the game at EverBank Field on November 13, 2016 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)

(Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)

Lamar Miller:

This could be a perfect storm in favor of fantasy owners who have Lamar Miller on their team.

The Texans’ offense ranks fourth in rushing attempts and fifth in rushing yards per game, while their opponent this week ranks 23rd in rushing yards allowed per game and 27th in rushing touchdowns allowed this season.

Individually, Miller ranks seventh in rushing attempts per game, and is one of only six players who have already topped 1,000 rushing yards this season.

Verdict: Start in all formats.

(Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)

(Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)

DeAndre Hopkins:

How do you explain the down season DeAndre Hopkins has had so far?

Sure, Brock Osweiler is bad, but Hopkins had 100-yard receiving games with four below average quarterbacks last year, so what makes 2016 so different?

Short answer: I don’t know.

What I do know are the stats, and they tell me Hopkins can’t be trusted in fantasy right now.

Hopkins AVERAGED 95.1 receiving yards per game in 2015, but has had only one 100-yard game this season (Week 2), and after averaging 6.9 receptions per game last year, he’s had just two games with at least seven receptions this season.

The 2015 Pro-Bowl receiver caught five passes for 48 yards and was held without a touchdown in the Texans last meeting against Jacksonville, and currently ranks 36th in fantasy points for wide receivers in standard ESPN leagues.

Verdict: Sit in all formats.

HOUSTON, TX - SEPTEMBER 11: Will Fuller #15 of the Houston Texans a makes a catch against the Deiondre\' Hall #32 of the Chicago Bears in the second half at NRG Stadium on September 11, 2016 in Houston, Texas. Texans won 23 to 14. (Photo by Thomas B. Shea/Getty Images)

(Photo by Thomas B. Shea/Getty Images)

Will Fuller:

The rookie is too inconsistent, and too infrequently targeted to trust in fantasy football.

Will Fuller has played better at home than on the road this season, but hasn’t posted a fantasy stat line worth starting since October 2nd, and both the game-flow and game plan could work against him this week vs Jacksonville.

The Texans are a run-first team, will likely take less risks against an opponent they know they can beat straight-up, and the score of the game in the second half could lead to a run-heavy strategy that focuses on milking the clock.

Verdict: Sit in all formats.

JACKSONVILLE, FL - NOVEMBER 13: Houston Texans Ryan Griffin #84 and C.J. Fiedorowicz celebrate Griffin's touchdown against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the game at EverBank Field on November 13, 2016 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

(Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

C.J. Fiedorowicz:

C.J. Fiedorowicz has received more targets from Brock Osweiler over their last four games (32) than anyone else on the roster including DeAndre Hopkins (28).

That’s the positive, but unfortunately for people considering playing Fiedorowicz this week, the third-year tight end has just one touchdown, and only one game with 80 receiving yards or more over the Texans last seven.

Fiedorowicz also suffered a concussion last week, so even if he plays against the Jaguars, his role and workload could be limited.

One other note: The Jaguars have allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends at just 5.7 per game.

Verdict: Sit in all formats.

HOUSTON, TX - NOVEMBER 01: Nick Novak #8 of the Houston Texans kicks a 38 yard field goal out the hold of Shane Lechler #9 in the second quarter against the Tennessee Titans at Reliant Park on November 1, 2015 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)

(Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)

Nick Novak:

The Texans offense hasn’t been good, but they’ve found that sweet spot for people who have Nick Novak on their team, where they’re good enough to move the ball into scoring range, but too inept to score touchdowns.

Last week against Indianapolis the result of that sweet spot was five made field goals for Novak, who now ranks ninth among all kickers in fantasy points.

This week Novak will face a Jaguars defense that’s given up the most fantasy points to opposing kickers at 11.0 per game, and he’ll face them at home where he’s averaging more field goal attempts and makes per game than he has on the road this season.

Verdict: Start in all formats.

JACKSONVILLE, FL - NOVEMBER 13: Blake Bortles #5 of the Jacksonville Jaguars throws a pass against the Houston Texans during the game at EverBank Field on November 13, 2016 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

(Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Defense:

Last week the Texans held Indianapolis under 20 points, forced three takeaways, and Jadeveon Clowney sacked Andrew Luck. They played a great game in real life, but it once again didn’t translate into fantasy success as what I just described resulted in eight fantasy points, only good enough for 14th most last week.

Enter Blake Bortles to save fantasy owners who have the Texans defense.

The Texans tied for the fifth-most fantasy points among fantasy defenses in Week 10 when they last faced Jacksonville, and on the season the Jaguars are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses at 8.7 per game; 3.1 points higher than what the average offense allows to opposing defenses.

Verdict: Start in standard leagues. In daily leagues, I’d rather play Seattle and Buffalo for sure, and maybe even Miami or Atlanta, so I’d only play the Texans if they save me cap space with a price tag outside the top 5.

Top 5 Starts of the Week:

LOS ANGELES, CA - DECEMBER 11: Matt Ryan #2 of the Atlanta Falcons makes a pass during the first quarter against the Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on December 11, 2016 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

(Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

Quarterback:

  1. Matt Ryan (vs San Francisco)
  2. Kirk Cousins (vs Carolina)
  3. Aaron Rodgers (at Chicago)
  4. Philip Rivers (vs Oakland)
  5. Tyrod Taylor (vs Cleveland)
ORCHARD PARK, NY - DECEMBER 11: Tyrod Taylor #5 of the Buffalo Bills hands off to LeSean McCoy #25 of the Buffalo Bills against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the first half at New Era Field on December 11, 2016 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Brett Carlsen/Getty Images)

(Photo by Brett Carlsen/Getty Images)

Running Back:

  1. LeSean McCoy (vs Cleveland)
  2. Le’Veon Bell (at Cincinnati)
  3. David Johnson (vs New Orleans)
  4. Devonta Freeman (vs San Francisco)
  5. Ezekiel Elliott (vs Tampa Bay)
EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - SEPTEMBER 25: Odell Beckham #13 of the New York Giants breaks a tackle by Josh Norman #24 of the Washington Redskins in the second half at MetLife Stadium on September 25, 2016 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Wide Receiver:

  1. Odell Beckham Jr. (vs Detroit)
  2. Antonio Brown (vs Cleveland)
  3. Jordy Nelson (at Chicago)
  4. Mike Evans (at Dallas)
  5. Julio Jones (vs San Francisco)
(Photo Credit: Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

(Photo Credit: Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

Tight End:

  1. Jordan Reed (vs Carolina)
  2. Greg Olsen (at Washington)
  3. Tyler Eifert (vs Pittsburgh)
  4. Travis Kelce (vs Tennessee)
  5. Delanie Walker (at Kansas City)
LOS ANGELES, CA - SEPTEMBER 18: Head coach Pete Carroll of the Seattle Seahawks speaks to Richard Sherman #25 in the second quarter of the home opening NFL game against the Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Coliseum on September 18, 2016 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

(Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

Defense:

  1. Seattle (vs LA)
  2. Buffalo (vs Cleveland)
  3. Houston (vs Jacksonville)
  4. Baltimore (vs Philadelphia)
  5. Atlanta (vs San Francisco)
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