The Houston Texans are tied atop the AFC South with the Tennessee Titans at 7-6. With only three weeks to go a lot can happen to figure out who wins the division (leaving out any talk of the wild card, while they are not eliminated by any means, the division is the most likely scenario).
What games matter this weekend? Just the two division leaders. With the Texans sweeping the Colts this year, Indianapolis is virtually eliminated from winning the division.
The Texans play the Jaguars at home on Sunday and the Titans travel to Kansas City to take on the AFC West leading Chiefs. The Titans then travel to Jacksonville in week 16 while the Texans host the Bengals on Christmas Eve. The two teams then face off in week 17 to end the season and that can effectively be a game that decides the division. But the Texans can clinch the division before Week 17 as well and only one way the Titans clinch before their head-to-head matchup.
There is no way for the Titans to have a better division record in the AFC south. They are currently 1-3 with one loss to the Texans already this season. The first tie breaker for the division is head to head schedule. If the Titans finish the season beating the Texans but ending with the same overall record, the Texans by way of their at worst 4-2 division record will take the division.
The Texans go 2-0 against the Jaguars and the Bengals and the Titans go 1-1 versus the Chiefs and Jaguars the Texans will win the division.
If the Texans even go 1-1 in the next two weeks and the Titans go 0-2, the Texans win the division.
If the Texans go 0-2 and the Titans go 2-0, the Titans would clinch the division before week 17.
Even if the Texans head into week 17 trailing the Titans, they can win the division by beating Tennessee in Nashville to finish the season.
Because of that division record lead the Texans can even trail the Titans by a game in overall record and come out of Nashville with their second division title.
If the Texans go 1-1 and the Titans go 2-0 in the next two weeks, the winner of the Week 17 game wins the division, even though the overall record would be tied.
If the Texans go 1-1 and the Titans go 1-1 the winner of week 17 game wins the division.
If the Texans go 0-2 and the Titans go 1-1 the Texans can win the division with a win over Tennessee in week 17.
If both teams go 0-2 the next two weeks, the winner of week 17 wins the division.
The TD;LR version of this. The Texans would have to go 0-2 to the Titans 2-0 the next two weeks to not have a shot at the division in week 17. Any other scenario and the Texans can win the AFC South by winning in week 17.