Mike Meltser’s Week 3 CFB Picks
Last week = 1-3
Overall = 2-5
Oregon State +3 at Utah – Have to be careful about lines that wouldn’t be anywhere this level if we had discussed this game two weeks ago. Yes, Oregon State dropped a horrible game to Eastern Washington, but Mike Riley is a very good football coach. They usually bounce back and improve over the course of the year. The Utes are off to a good start (QB Travis Wilson has been quietly putting up excellent numbers), but I’m not sure if they’re ready to be favored against a preseason top 25 team.
Oregon -28 vs. Tennessee – I think this is a good spread, at home, for the #2 team in the nation. I know the Volunteers had a big win (on paper) against Western Kentucky, but they were VERY fortunate in the turnover margin. The strength of the Vols is running the ball, and I can’t see them doing that consistently in Eugene. Tennessee has inexperience at QB, and I believe this is way too tall of a task. It’s hard to beat any SEC team by four touchdowns, but I think the Vols are in a rebuilding year.
Penn State -4.5 vs. Central Florida – UCF has had 2 big wins so far this season, but they have come against Akron and FIU. Always be wary of teams that feast on easy competition before playing in a tricky road environment. I like what I’ve seen from freshman QB Christian Hackenberg, minus a few mistakes against Syracuse and Eastern Michigan. So far this season, the true freshman is 45-64 for 589 yards and 3 TDs. This will be a competitive game, but I expect the Nittany Lions to win by about a TD. I think 4.5 is a good value here.
Mike Meltser can be heard on MaD Radio from 10am-2pm