Two weeks ago – 3-2 (good wins with LSU, Clemson, and Penn State. Finally a respectable job of picking games)
Overall – 13-18
USC -8.5 vs. Arizona State – Whether the footballs are deflated or not, I expect USC to come out angry after losing 2 straight games. Lane Kiffin is under fire (rightfully so), but the Trojans will right the ship at the Coliseum.
Texas A&M +13.5 at Alabama – There are two main reasons for this selection. One, I think the Aggies are at the point where they are ready to make a big stand against an elite team, instead of fading like they did against Florida and LSU. Two, the Crimson Tide is coming off a very emotional win last Saturday at LSU, and I always believe there’s a natural letdown the following week. 13.5 is a bundle of points, so I expect Alabama to win, but not cover that many points.
Iowa -5 at Purdue – I’ve picked a few teams to win in West Lafayette, and done well so far this season (Wisconsin, Penn State last week). This Boilermaker team just has the feel of dead-coach-walking with Danny Hope. Their offense is lousy and has no quarterback, and they’ve been bludgeoned at home a few times this season. Kirk Ferentz usually has even his lousy teams playing competent football by November.
Wisconsin -7 at Indiana – Believe it or not, Indiana has the inside track on playing in the Big Ten Championship Game with a win at home against Wisconsin. I just don’t think it’s going to happen here. They haven’t shown me the ability to win this kind of game. The Badgers have rallied after some shaky losses this season, and I just trust Bret Bielema’s team more in this spot. The Hoosiers lost by 14 points to a lousy Illinois squad a few weeks ago; they’ll need to show a lot more to cover this line. Plus, I like the Badgers coming off the bye.
Louisville -1.5 at Syracuse – I am obviously a Syracuse guy, but this line strikes me as way too low. Yes, people have circled this as an “upset watch” with undefeated Louisville coming into an interesting environment, but the Orange struggle against mobile QBs like Teddy Bridgewater. Are people that confident in SU winning this game? If the Cardinals win, and I believe they will, they are going to cover the small spread here.
Mike Meltser can be heard on MaD Radio from 10am-2pm