Reporting Mike Meltser
Two weeks ago - 1-4 (I got buried with bad picks in the Tenn-Alabama and Kansas State-West Virginia games)
Overall - 10-16
LSU +9 vs. Alabama – There are 2 main reasons I expect LSU to cover this spread: they are at home, and even dominant teams face close games. Alabama is the best team in the country, but they haven’t really been tested a single time. Historically, even teams like USC and Miami had to find ways to win close games. I think the first big test for the Crimson Tide comes on Saturday night.
Clemson -11.5 at Duke – Credit Duke for becoming bowl-eligible for the first time in decades two weeks ago, but I don’t like what I saw in their 48-7 whitewashing against Florida State last Saturday. This game is in Durham, but it feels like a bad matchup for the Blue Devils. Tahj Boyd, Sammie Watkins, and DeAndre Hopkins will be too much to handle for Duke.
Air Force -7 at Army – Army has won 1 game this season, and that coincidentally came in a game where I picked BC to hammer them. This game is also at West Point, but Air Force is a very strong team that brings in a terrific rushing attack. These Armed Forces games are always a little tricky to predict, but I think 7 is a fairly manageable number for the Falcons.
Penn State -3.5 at Purdue – Another road favorite, but this comes against a team that will fire its coach in about a month (Danny Hope). PSU didn’t play well in last week’s home loss to Ohio State, but they crushed Iowa on the road a few weeks ago. The Hawkeyes are better than the Boilermakers, so I expect the Nittany Lions to roll in West Lafayette.
Mississippi State +7 vs. Texas A&M - This line seems really high to me. I don’t know that I trust the Aggies covering fairly big numbers on the road in SEC play. They won by a total of 5 points at Ole Miss and Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs were crushed by Alabama last week, but I expect them to bounce back at home. This game will be closer than that spread indicates.
Mike Meltser can be heard on MaD Radio from 10am-2pm